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North Korea is getting ready for a new round of provocative weapons displays, including long-range missile tests and a spy satellite launch, according to South Korea’s intelligence service. The country is intensifying its illicit activities to support its fragile economy, which has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic and international sanctions. Despite these economic challenges, North Korea has conducted a record number of missile tests, leading to suspicions that its weapons programs are funded through cyber activities and covert exports of banned items.

Experts believe that North Korea’s current economic troubles and food shortages are the worst since Kim Jong Un took power in late 2011. However, there are no signs of an imminent famine or major public unrest that could threaten Kim’s grip on power. The government’s attempts to restrict market activities, dwindling personal incomes, and pandemic-related trade restrictions have exacerbated the food problem.

The National Intelligence Service informed lawmakers that North Korea’s economy has shrunk each year from 2020 to 2022, and its gross domestic product in 2022 was 12% lower than it was in 2016. The intelligence service also reported that North Korea covertly exported 1.7 million tons of coal and 580 kilograms of gold in violation of UN sanctions in the first half of 2023. Additionally, it estimated that North Korea has stolen over .5 billion in virtual assets since 2015.

The National Intelligence Service has detected unusual activities at North Korean facilities involved in the production of intercontinental ballistic missiles using both solid and liquid fuel. It is expected that North Korea will resume weapons testing in response to upcoming US-South Korean military drills and a trilateral summit between the US, South Korea, and Japan. The intelligence service also stated that North Korea may attempt to launch a spy satellite in late August or early September to commemorate the country’s 75th anniversary.

This would be North Korea’s second attempt to put a satellite into orbit, following a failed attempt in May. State media reported that the rocket lost thrust after the separation of its first and second stages.

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