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In January, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists moved the Doomsday Clock to 90 seconds to midnight, indicating how close humankind is to destroying itself, the closest it has ever been to worldwide catastrophe. A survey conducted in 2022 revealed that over three-quarters of Americans believe that a biological, chemical, or nuclear attack is likely to occur somewhere on Earth in the next year.

If a nuclear attack were to target the United States, remote areas would likely be safer than large urban centers, as the enemy is likely to first target strategic military installations. Stephen Schwartz, author of “Atomic Audit: The Costs and Consequences of US Nuclear Weapons Since 1940,” has identified 15 such targets, including command centers, ICBM bases, communication stations, and air force and submarine bases. Dr. Irwin Redlener, a professor at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, has identified six economic centers that are most likely to be attacked.

24/7 Wall St. constructed an index to rank major U.S. cities likely to be targets based on the identified targets. The index considered factors such as population density, city preparedness for emergencies, economic significance, city preparedness plans, distance to strategic military targets, proximity to nuclear power plants, and ease of evacuation based on commute time and the percentage of the city area that is water. The index also included projected fatalities and injuries assuming a 1 megaton bomb.

It is important to note that in case of a nuclear explosion, the first priority is not to evacuate but to “get inside, stay inside, stay tuned.” FEMA’s plan advises staying inside an adequate shelter in basements or the center of larger, dense buildings for at least 12-24 hours if possible.

While the cities on the list may not be the first cities that come to mind as the worst places to be in a nuclear attack, they are likely to be hit, at least partially. The nation’s capital, for example, is a strategic and civilian target. Other economic centers that could also be targeted include Boston, Miami, Atlanta, San Jose, Dallas, and Philadelphia.

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