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North Korea is reportedly getting ready for a new round of provocative weapons displays, including long-range missile tests and a spy satellite launch. The country is increasing its illicit activities in an effort to support its fragile economy, according to South Korea’s intelligence service.

North Korea has been experiencing chronic economic hardships and food shortages exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and U.N. sanctions. Despite these challenges, the country has conducted a record number of missile tests since last year. There are suspicions that North Korea’s weapons programs are funded through illegal cyber activities and covert exports of banned items.

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) revealed in a closed-door briefing that North Korea’s economy has shrunk each year from 2020 to 2022. Last year, the country’s GDP was 12% lower than in 2016. Experts believe that the current food shortages and economic troubles are the worst since Kim Jong Un assumed power in late 2011.

The NIS also provided information on North Korea’s covert export activities. In the first half of this year, the country reportedly exported an estimated 1.7 million tons of coal, up more than 300% from the previous year, and 580 kilograms (1,280 pounds) of gold, up 50%. These exports violate U.N sanctions. The NIS estimated that North Korea has stolen over .5 billion in virtual assets since 2015.

The NIS further stated that Kim Jong Un is expected to resume weapons testing in response to major annual U.S.-South Korean military drills and an upcoming U.S.-South Korea-Japan summit. The intelligence agency detected increased activities at a North Korean facility for producing solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missiles and another site related to liquid-fueled ICBMs.

Additionally, North Korea may attempt to launch a spy satellite in late August or early September as part of its 75th-anniversary celebrations on September 9th. This would be the country’s second attempt this year, following a failed launch in late May.

North Korea’s weapons development is a response to perceived U.S. military threats, particularly efforts to strengthen alliances with South Korea and Japan. The country has conducted over 100 weapons tests since the beginning of 2022. While North Korea has demonstrated potential range to reach the U.S. mainland with its ICBMs, it still faces technological challenges in perfecting these capabilities. Its shorter-range missiles pose a threat to South Korea and Japan.

The NIS, known for its insights into secretive North Korea, has a reputation for reliability compared to civilian monitoring groups.

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