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North Korea Preparing for Weapons Displays Amid Economic Challenges

North Korea is reportedly getting ready for a new series of provocative weapons displays, including long-range missile tests and the launch of a spy satellite. The country’s intelligence service informed lawmakers about these activities as North Korea seeks to support its fragile economy. The COVID-19 pandemic and U.N. sanctions have exacerbated North Korea’s chronic economic hardships and food shortages. Experts believe that the current economic troubles and food shortages are the worst since Kim Jong Un assumed power in 2011.

The National Intelligence Service shared that North Korea’s economy has been shrinking each year from 2020 to 2022, with its gross domestic product in 2022 being 12% less than it was in 2016. The North Korean government’s attempts to restrict market activities, declining personal incomes, and pandemic-related trade restrictions have worsened the food problem in the country.

The intelligence service also revealed that North Korea has been covertly exporting coal and gold in violation of U.N. sanctions. It is estimated that the country has stolen over .5 billion in virtual assets since 2015.

Kim Jong Un is expected to resume weapons testing in response to the upcoming U.S.-South Korean military drills and a trilateral U.S.-South Korea-Japan summit. Unusually heavy activity has been detected at a North Korean facility that produces solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missiles. North Korea may also attempt to launch a spy satellite in late August or early September to mark the country’s 75th anniversary. This would be North Korea’s second attempt at putting a satellite into orbit.

North Korea’s weapons developments are seen as a response to perceived U.S. military threats and efforts to strengthen alliances with South Korea and Japan. The country has conducted over 100 weapons tests since the beginning of 2022, targeting South Korea, Japan, and potentially the U.S. mainland. North Korea’s mastery of some remaining technological challenges is necessary for its long-range missile program. Solid-fueled missiles, which offer mobility and quick firing capabilities, pose a greater challenge in terms of detection prior to launch.

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