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North Korea is getting ready to conduct a new round of provocative weapons displays, including long-range missile tests and a spy satellite launch, according to South Korea’s intelligence service. These activities are part of North Korea’s efforts to support its fragile economy, which has been severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and UN sanctions. Despite economic hardships and food shortages, North Korea has conducted a record number of missile tests in the past year. There are suspicions that its weapons programs are funded by illegal cyber activities and covert export of banned items.

Experts state that the current food shortages and economic troubles in North Korea are the worst since Kim Jong Un came into power in 2011. However, there are no signs of an imminent famine or major public unrest that could threaten Kim’s control over the country. The government’s attempts to restrict market activities, declining personal incomes, and pandemic-related trade restrictions have worsened the food problem.

According to the closed-door briefing by the National Intelligence Service, North Korea has covertly exported an estimated 1.7 million tons of coal and 580 kilograms of gold in violation of UN sanctions. The NIS also estimates that North Korea has stolen over .5 billion in virtual assets since 2015. The intelligence service predicts that Kim Jong Un will resume weapons testing in response to major US-South Korean military drills and a trilateral US-South Korea-Japan summit.

North Korea may also attempt to launch a spy satellite in late August or early September to commemorate the country’s 75th anniversary. The NIS has observed unusual activities at North Korean missile production facilities and sites related to intercontinental ballistic missiles. It is North Korea’s second attempt this year to launch a spy satellite.

Kim Jong Un has pledged to develop high-tech weapons systems, including a military reconnaissance satellite, in response to what North Korea perceives as US military threats. The country is particularly sensitive to US efforts to strengthen alliances with South Korea and Japan. North Korea has conducted over 100 weapons tests since the start of 2022, aiming to enhance its military capabilities in response to US-South Korean exercises.

While North Korea has demonstrated the potential range of its intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to reach the US mainland, experts believe that the country still faces technological challenges. Shorter-range missiles pose a threat to South Korea and Japan. It is worth noting that solid-fueled missiles are more difficult to detect before launch due to their ability to be moved and fired quickly.

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