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North Korea is reportedly getting ready to showcase provocative weapons displays, including long-range missile tests and a spy satellite launch. South Korea’s intelligence service revealed this information to lawmakers. The country’s frail economy has been further strained by the COVID-19 pandemic and United Nations sanctions, exacerbating existing economic hardships and food shortages. Despite these challenges, North Korea has conducted a record number of missile tests recently, raising suspicions that its weapons programs receive funding from illegal cyber activities and covert exports of banned items.

According to the National Intelligence Service, North Korea’s economy contracted each year from 2020 to 2022. Last year, its gross domestic product was 12% lower than in 2016. Experts outside of North Korea believe that the country’s current economic troubles and food shortages are the worst they have been since Kim Jong Un assumed leadership in 2011. However, there are no indications of an impending famine or significant public unrest that could threaten Kim’s hold on power.

The government’s attempts to restrict market activities, declining personal incomes, and pandemic-related trade restrictions have worsened the food problem. The NIS informed lawmakers that North Korea has covertly exported 1.7 million tons of coal and 580 kilograms of gold in violation of UN sanctions. Additionally, it is estimated that the country has stolen over .5 billion in virtual assets since 2015.

The NIS has detected increased activities at a North Korean facility involved in the production of solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missiles and another site associated with liquid-fueled ICBMs. It is speculated that North Korea may attempt to launch a spy satellite in late August or early September to commemorate the country’s 75th anniversary on September 9. This would be their second attempt to put a satellite into orbit.

North Korea is highly sensitive to US efforts to strengthen its alliances with South Korea and Japan. In response to what it perceives as US military threats, North Korea has conducted over 100 weapons tests since the beginning of this year. While its ICBMs have the potential to reach the US mainland, further technological advancements are necessary. However, its shorter-range missiles already pose a threat to South Korea and Japan. Solid-fueled missiles, which North Korea utilizes, are harder to detect before launch due to their ability to be moved and fired more swiftly.

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