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North Korea is reportedly getting ready to conduct new rounds of provocative weapons displays, including long-range missile tests and a spy satellite launch. The country is intensifying its illicit activities as it continues to face economic hardships and food shortages worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic and U.N. sanctions.

According to South Korea’s National Intelligence Service, North Korea’s economy has been shrinking each year from 2020 to 2022, with its gross domestic product in 2022 being 12% less than in 2016. Experts believe that these current economic troubles and food shortages are among the worst since Kim Jong Un assumed power in 2011. However, there are no immediate signs of an impending famine or major public unrest that could threaten Kim’s regime.

The food shortage issue has been exacerbated by the government’s attempts to restrict market activities, declining personal incomes, and pandemic-related trade restrictions. In the first half of this year, North Korea has covertly exported an estimated 1.7 million tons of coal (up more than 300% from the previous year) and 580 kilograms of gold (up 50%), both in violation of U.N. sanctions. The country is also believed to have stolen over .5 billion in virtual assets since 2015.

The National Intelligence Service also stated that North Korea is expected to resume weapons testing in response to major U.S.-South Korean military drills and the upcoming U.S.-South Korea-Japan summit. Unusually heavy activities were detected at North Korean facilities involved in the production of solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missiles and liquid-fueled ICBMs. Additionally, North Korea may attempt to launch a spy satellite in late August or early September to commemorate the country’s 75th anniversary.

Kim Jong Un has expressed his determination to develop advanced weapons systems to counter what North Korea perceives as U.S. military threats. The country has conducted over 100 weapons tests since the beginning of 2022, mainly in response to U.S.-South Korean joint exercises. While North Korea has demonstrated the potential range of its ICBMs to reach the U.S. mainland, it still faces technological challenges.

It is worth noting that the National Intelligence Service has a checkered history in reporting on North Korea, but is generally considered more reliable than civilian monitoring groups.

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