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North Korea is ramping up illicit activities to support its fragile economy, according to South Korea’s intelligence service. The country is preparing for a new round of provocative weapons displays, including long-range missile tests and a spy satellite launch. These activities come as North Korea faces chronic economic hardships and food shortages worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic and U.N. sanctions.

According to lawmakers who attended a closed-door briefing by the National Intelligence Service, North Korea’s economy has been shrinking each year, and its gross domestic product in 2021 was 12% lower than in 2016. Experts believe that the country’s current economic troubles and food shortages are the worst in years. However, there are no immediate signs of a famine or widespread public unrest that could threaten the regime.

The government’s attempts to restrict market activities, dwindling personal incomes, and pandemic-related trade restrictions have aggravated the food problem. Additionally, the NIS revealed that North Korea covertly exported an estimated 1.7 million tons of coal and 580 kilograms of gold, both in violation of U.N. sanctions. It is also estimated that North Korea has stolen over .5 billion in virtual assets since 2015.

The NIS expects North Korea to resume weapons testing in response to major U.S.-South Korean military drills and an upcoming trilateral U.S.-South Korea-Japan summit. Unusual activities have been detected at a facility that produces solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missiles and another site related to liquid-fueled ICBMs. North Korea may also attempt to launch a spy satellite in late August or early September.

North Korea has been sensitive to U.S. efforts to strengthen its alliances with South Korea and Japan. In response, the country has conducted more than 100 weapons tests since the beginning of 2022. While its ICBMs have the potential range to reach the U.S. mainland, analysts believe there are remaining technological challenges to overcome. North Korea’s shorter-range missiles are capable of targeting South Korea and Japan.

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