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North Korea Faces Worsening Economic Hardships and Food Shortages

North Korea is experiencing severe economic hardships and food shortages, exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic and UN sanctions. Despite these challenges, the country has conducted a record number of missile tests since last year. There are suspicions that illegal cyber activities and covert exports of banned items are funding North Korea’s weapons programs.

According to the National Intelligence Service (NIS), North Korea’s economy has been shrinking each year from 2020 to 2022. In 2021, its gross domestic product was 12% smaller than in 2016. Experts believe that the current food shortages and economic troubles are the worst since Kim Jong Un assumed power in 2011. However, there is no immediate sign of a famine or major public unrest that could threaten Kim Jong Un’s leadership.

Monitoring groups tracking North Korea have attributed the worsening food problem to government restrictions on market activities, diminishing personal incomes, and pandemic-related trade restrictions.

The NIS revealed that in the first half of this year, North Korea covertly exported around 1.7 million tons of coal, a 300% increase compared to the previous year. Additionally, they exported 580 kilograms (1,280 pounds) of gold, a 50% increase. Both of these actions violate UN sanctions.

Furthermore, it is estimated that North Korea has stolen over .5 billion in virtual assets since 2015. The intelligence service expects Kim Jong Un to resume weapons testing in response to major US-South Korean military drills and a trilateral summit between the US, South Korea, and Japan.

The NIS has detected increased activity in a North Korean facility that produces solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) as well as another site associated with liquid-fueled ICBMs. There are indications that North Korea may attempt to launch a spy satellite in late August or early September to commemorate the country’s 75th founding anniversary.

North Korea has been striving to develop high-tech weapons systems, including a military reconnaissance satellite. However, their recent attempts at satellite launches have been unsuccessful.

These launch preparations are seen as a gesture of protest against the Camp David summit and the ongoing US-South Korean military drills. North Korea is highly sensitive to efforts by the US to strengthen its alliances with South Korea and Japan.

Despite North Korea’s missile capabilities, there are still technological challenges that need to be overcome. Their ICBMs have demonstrated the potential to reach the US mainland, while their shorter-range missiles pose a threat to South Korea and Japan. Solid-fueled missiles, which North Korea possesses one type of, are particularly difficult to detect before launch because of their ease of mobility and quick-firing capabilities.

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