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The emergence of a new commercial space model aligns seamlessly with the evolution of 6G technology. The convergence between mobile and satellite communications indicates that low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites will play a pivotal role in the development of 6G.

SpaceX is at the forefront of expanding the LEO satellite industry market. Through its groundbreaking advancements in reusable rocket technology, SpaceX has successfully reduced the cost of individual launches. In fact, in 2022 alone, SpaceX executed an impressive 61 rocket launches, with plans to increase that number to 90 in 2023. As the launch expenses for its Starlink satellite constellation continue to decrease, satellite communication is becoming more accessible, resulting in a rapid increase in the number of Starlink users. As of May 2023, SpaceX reported a global user base of 1.5 million Starlink customers.

Additionally, support for satellite communication functionalities in consumer devices like smartphones and cars is becoming increasingly widespread. This fosters a diverse range of commercial applications for LEO satellites.

In the past, satellite communications were considered a niche market, and satellite communication was not prioritized in the development of mobile communication. However, recent developments in the satellite communication sector have brought it into the spotlight in the context of 6G. SpaceX, as the leading player in the LEO satellite market, is setting the standard for satellite communication in 6G. The ability to utilize LEO satellites for communication has now become a determining factor for countries and corporations in seizing the opportunities of 6G.

Recognizing the strategic importance of satellite communication, several nations, including the United States, Japan, and China, have classified it as an emerging industry. Governments have introduced policies to secure their influence in the global LEO satellite market. Multiple companies, such as OneWeb from the UK, Telesat from Canada, and SpaceX, have entered this arena. China has also proposed its own version of Starlink.

Under the regulations of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), satellite orbital usage rights operate under the “first come, first served” principle. This means that operators or countries that launch satellites first gain a competitive edge, putting pressure on latecomers or nations yet to embark on satellite launches.

Taking China as an example, as 6G advances into the standardization phase, China aims to build on the advantage it gained in the 5G era. However, challenges arise due to sanctions impacting Huawei’s operations. In terms of satellite communication, China plans to deploy 12,992 satellites for its version of Starlink. However, the launch is scheduled for the first half of 2024, creating a substantial gap compared to leading nations and operators.

Furthermore, China’s support infrastructure for LEO satellites is still in its early stages. Though Huawei has introduced a new satellite communication feature relying on geosynchronous orbits, it remains to be seen whether consumer demand can sustain operational costs and whether SpaceX has already captured a significant share of the market. This challenge applies not only to China but to all prospective entrants in the LEO satellite market, emphasizing the importance of evaluating rocket launch technology and business models for competition in this sector.

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